From Pennsylvania

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I don’t live in Philadelphia. I live in Central Pennsylvania, in Centre County, about six miles outside State College.I worked the poll here in this district from 6-10 (voting began at 7, and polls close at 8). This is a fairly small, conservative voting district, with a GOP majority. It was amazing. At 6, there were people waiting outside the church. When we opened the doors at 7, the line went all the way around the church and down the street.

At 10, I cast the 396th vote. That’s a huge turnout for this district, a huge GOP turnout. There was no sign of any more “youth” voters than usual. There were some volunteers for candidates standing outside when I left, and both the two Dems and two Republicans agreed that from the reactions of the voters to them as they went to vote, most were voting GOP.

If there is a massive GOP turnout all over the state, McCain has a very good shot at carrying Pennsylvania. I’m seeing similar reports from Indiana, Virginia and Florida.

Also note: The polls assume a huge Democrat turnout and a depressed GOP turnout. That’s not what’s happening here. I suspected as much. That’s how we won in 2004 — huge turnout. I think we’re going to see a huge GOP turnout in all the battleground states. We may also see a huge Dem turnout. That will make the race close; it won’t seal it for Obama. Not, that is, unless the Dems get a bigger turnout.

Don’t trust early results from Pennsylvania. We’re expecting many polls to still be voting at least until 11. “The polls close at 8” only means the doors close. Everybody inside still gets to vote. In this district, it will take about 90 minutes to get everybody inside through. In larger voting districts, it will take even longer. That’s going to make “early reports” based on exit polls even more problematic than they were in 2004. Let’s hope the media learned their lesson about that.

I’m going back to work from 4-6. Turnout did slack off from the first hour, but it’s much heavier than any other election I’ve seen here, and people who have been working elections for years say it’s bigger than even what they saw in 2004. WaPo confirms election officials are reporting huge turnouts across the state.

The media believe that a big turnout favors Democrats. It does not. They should have learned in 2004, but they didn’t. Last week, Palin was right here, on campus, and drew over 7,000 people, people who stood in the cold and rain and bitterly cold, strong wind for hours to get in. The next day, Bill Clinton was here to stump for Obama; he drew 1,500.

In a college town. On campus.

If you haven’t voted, brave the lines. Forget polls. Votes, and only votes, win elections. I’m making no predictions, but I’m not drinking the doom and gloom kool-aid, because I pay more attention to what I see in the real world from real people than what I read on the blogosphere.

Vote!

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2 Responses to “From Pennsylvania”

  1. Election Day Anecdotes - Updated continuously | The Anchoress Says:

    […] Wing Professor worked the polling place today and files a report: Don’t trust early results from Pennsylvania. We’re expecting many polls to […]

  2. Antonio Pinillos Says:

    How disgusting… what a defeat. I’m destroyed inside. Four years of the chimpanzee. Four years of high taxes and a lot of suffering for the real Americans. Those monkeys were yelling at my door, jumping like savages, because that negro won the election.

    Mc Cain you failed… you delivered America to our enemies.
    God, please help us now!

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